Well now, average meaning 50%? So maybe the first half of the Vanagons
hit the crusher 12 years after purchase, then the other 50% gone after
24 years? That's doubtful. Possibly more like an asymptotic curve, like
the half-life of a radioactive isotope: approaching but never reaching
zero Vanagons.

Like some old Stanley steam car from the beginning of the 20th century,
there /might/ still be one Vanagon operating 100 years from now, on a
special permit, burning some mysterious, expensive, highly-flammable and
stinky hand-distilled fluid. Bets on who's grandkids will be driving it?

(And what's with our stupid vehicle registration records that we can't
look up how many of what model of car are currently registered?)

--

Mike "Rocket J Squirrel" Elliott
71 Type 2: the Wonderbus
84 Westfalia: Mellow Yellow ("The Electrical Banana")
74 Utility Trailer. Ladybug Trailer, Inc., San Juan Capistrano
KG6RCR

On 5/31/2007 1:06 PM Matt Roberds wrote:

>> From:    Robert Fisher <refisher@MCHSI.COM>
>> Date:    Wed, 30 May 2007 17:05:44 -0700
>>
>> It would be interesting to know what the on-the-road survival rate of
>> these vans is... meaning how many of them are actually (and legally)
>> in use versus the number that were sold in a major geographic area
>> (North America, Europe, etc.)
>
> If you go by the national average, all Vanagons are already dead.  This
> number is a few years old, but the average car in the US ends up in the
> junkyard twelve years after it rolls off the showroom floor.  I wouldn't
> be too surprised if this number is up to 15 years by now, but I also
> wouldn't be surprised if it's still 12.  Well-loved vehicles obviously
> buck this trend - go out on the weekend in the city and you're almost
> guaranteed to see a Bug driving around, 27 years after they were last
> sold in the US.
>
> Matt Roberds
>