

| Subject: | Re: What is it with the US? (No real van content) |
| From: | Jim Akiba |
| Date: | Mon, 25 Jun 2007 17:17:41 -0400 |
From my understanding, further developing hybrids looks to be ahead in priority to optimizing diesels in the industry. SAE does a yearly survey right before the world congress, and it was something like 38% of respondents(all tier 1 supply company engineers or engineers for automakers) said hybrid development was the #1 powertrain systems effort over the next ten years, optimizing diesels was something like 24%. This of course doesn't mean that will happen or is true, but everything certainly seems to coincide right now. It makes sense that Japanese automakers would be pursuing hybrids just because for one thing, they started it, but also because of the nature of their markets. Gas hybrids make good sense for lot's of stop and go(read any type of driving in japan) and city driving here, but more importantly diesel optimization is still behind in terms of profitability.. and since cost reduction is the single largest priority for automakers in 07, followed by emissions, then fuel econ and CAF� requirements. It seems like the biggest reason we aren't seeing the light duty diesels is they are still too expensive. If they get further in development of clean diesels that don't need active NOX reduction to meet Tier 2 bin 5, then it's possible... for now things like the bluetec diesels are going to be available and the ones to watch, but they need "adblue" which should be "adpiss" because it's a tank of urea used for the SCR catalyst needed to meet tier 2 bin 5... most people don't want an extra tank of urea in their car simply because it's expensive for OEMs to put it there... especially if the vehicle is expensive to begin with.. maybe they will have a way to integrate a urinal/filter so you never have to find urea to add to you're bluetec. In any case, the exhaust system is very expensive, complicated, and without it the whole thng is a no-go.. so not a great outcome at the moment. There are a number of light-medium duty cab-over diesel hybrid trucks that have been selling in Japan since the early 2000's, fuso, hino, and Nissan all have some variation.. but they are still only suited for heavy vehicles, and are still expensive. The biggest reason they sell at all is mostly from a sense of either social responsibility or corporate loyalty in Japan, they still don't make economic sense for companies that buy them, and we all know how well that kind of non-money motivated idea works here. Individuals sometimes(prius, civc hv, etc), companies no way, not until the money is there. Jim Akiba
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