On Mon, Dec 6, 2010 at 11:40 AM, David Beierl <dbeierl@attglobal.net> wrote:

> At 12:26 PM 12/6/2010, Mike South wrote:
>
>> Your engine might have spark leaks right now, in other words, that you
>> don't know about.  So could anyone's.  So I would think that paranoia-level
>> attention to fuel lines is warranted in spite of the fact that you can spray
>> gasoline on an exhaust pipe without ignition--in a spark-free environment.
>>
>> Right?
>>
>
> Dear Mike,
>
> I completely agree, and I think it's a darn shame those lines aren't metal.
>  That being said, my point remains that while we *know* about the fuel lines
> and their weaknesses, the connection between them and actual fires is to the
> best of my knowledge a matter of conjecture.  I have never seen forensics on
> *any* car fire except the case of arson that Alistair mentioned.  I would
> dearly love to.  If it should turn out for example that oil is also a
> significant danger to our beloved beasts, that would be important to know.
>  Therefore I encourage a more open mind toward the cause of actual specific
> fires than has usually been shown here.
>

OK, I understand your point better now.

So, just for fun, let's try to sketch out the oil-causes-vanagon-fire
scenario.

What would the owner observe leading up to the event?  Like, in a "normal"
situation in a vanagon, is there a route for oil to suddenly start dripping
onto the exhaust?  And once it ignites, will it keep burning at the rate
that a spraying gasoline line would?  Well, I guess the rate doesn't have to
be the same, but is it sustainable.

I would guess that a gradually-worsening problem with oil that included the
oil hitting exhaust might cause quite a bit of smoke before it flamed up?
 Gradually worsening gasoline leak may (by comparison) dissipate
unnoticeably [or could you depend on a significant drop in gas mileage by
the time you had a leak capable of starting a fire?] until you get "lucky"
and it hits the spark.

It would be nice to have real data even if it weren't forensic.  Like a
survey of each fire-sufferer to determine gas line age, or (even more
ambitious and harder to come by) a randomized longitudinal study where gas
line and spark plug wire maintenance was tracked and you could see whether
the combination of un-maintained gas lines plus un-maintained spark plug
wires showed a steep increase in fire incidence vs un-maintained gas lines
with recently replaced wires.

Also, I would like a pony, a Winnebago, and liberty and justice for all.  Oh
wait--I guess I don't need the Winnebago, I have a vanagon...well...parts of
one.  Parts of more than one, actually.

mike