I was looking in my computer tonight and I found an old file 
with the text of a posting I made in 1989 to the Limbo 
newsletter. I thought its contents are still interesting and/or 
amusing enough to repost to the list. I have added a very few comments
from the present time (December, 1994).These comments are in 
paragraphs which begin "[1994 Comment:"

          NOTES ON THE FOUR WHEEL DRIVE BUS
          __________________________________

THE NUMBERS.

Many people are aware of how rare the Vanagon four wheel
drive Syncros are in this country but noone seems to have a
handle on the exact number of syncros sold.  When I set out
to find a used Syncro Camper it took nearly two months and
over 1,000 phone calls around the country to locate one.  We
all hear about how exclusive vehicles are like the $38,000
Range Rover, but many thousands of these are sold every year.

Some research turned up the following numbers, which refer to
the number of vehicles sold in a particular year, regardless
of the model year in which the vehicle was manufactured.

             NUMBER OF VANAGON SYNCROS SOLD
                                              % Syncros which
                 Non-Camper   Camper   Total  are campers

         1986      1,316       285    1,601         18%
         1987      1,219       515    1,734         29%
         1988        573       119      692         17%
         1989*       157        97      254         34%
         TOTAL     3,265     1,016    4,281         24%
             *through Nov. 15, 1989

These statistics reveal an interesting picture.  The bottom
line is that Syncros are really rare, especially the camper.
The United States allotment of Syncro Campers in 1989, for
example, would average only two vehicles per state!

The numbers seem to contradict the conventional wisdom that
hardly any Syncros were sold in 1986 and that the first year
the Syncros were sold in any number was 1987.  It would
appear that sales during the two years were roughly equal.

It is inescapable that the trend in Syncro sales started slow
and has proceeded to drop every year.  I suspect this was due
to a lack of promotion on VWs part once the initial sales
push proved disappointing.  Since VW was said not to have
sold a 1988 Syncro, one can assume the cars sold in 1988 were
actually unsold 1987 models.  My own camper is such a model,
and will still be under its two year warranty into the fourth
month of 1990.

[1994 Comment: I crashed this 1987 camper and it is now cut 
up in pieces (with my sawzall) and is in my father's attick.
I did this because he forbade me to park a wrecked car on his
property, saying it would make his house look like it belonged
in the Ozarks. Little does he know, the whole car is now over 
his head. I bought the 87 camper from Ali Haji Shiek, the football 
kicker who muffed a superbowl kick shortly before I bought the 
van from him. They must have fired him, because he was at that 
time working as a VW car salesman.]

The third trend of interest is that the percentage of four
wheel drive Vanagons which are campers is rising.  Campers
comprised only 18% of Syncro sales in 1986 while Campers were
34% in 1989.  (1988 sales of campers were down again a bit,
probably due to the need to sell off the regular Syncro
Vanagons left over from the 1987 model year).

I believe the steady rise of Camper sales as a percentage of
Syncro sales is because only the Syncro Camper is unique,
unlike the basic van, which has to compete in a crowded
minivan field.

THE COMPETITION.

The Mazada Multi Purpose Vehicle is interesting, in that it
has a big engine, four wheel drive versions, and a camper
package on the way.  Unfortunately, it only has half the
interrior volume that the Vanagon has.  The Toyota minivan,
which also has a four wheel drive and camper package, is said
to handle like a delivery truck and forces the people in the
front to sit on the engine (ick).

1994 VANAGON

It may be that VW's enthusiasm for the current Vanagon is
dwindling as it prepares to introduce it's 1994 front engine
van, which will have a six-cylinder motor.  This vehicle will
also have optional four wheel drive, and a optional short and
long wheelbase versions.  Any readers who might be tempted to
wait to pick one of these things up, however, might want to
think twice after looking at spy photos in the automotive
press.

The new car has lost all remaining charm that VWs vans ever
had.  It looks like a cross between a Ford Aerostar and a
Chevy Astro, with the worst features of each--an entirely
forgettable form.  The looks are so plain, in fact, I suspect
VW is probably going to have to redeisign it again before
introduction.  Or perhaps they've simply decided to abandon
pretensions to building a cute, consumer oriented van.  As a
sort of industrial or delivery vehicle the new car will blend
right in with the competition and do fine.

If a few less campers are sold, why should VW care in the
larger scheme of things?  From VW's point of view, even if
the profit on a Syncro Camper was $5,000, 97 sold would yield
about $500,000 in profits, enough to pay the salaries of
three top executives, period.

[1994 Comment: I was wrong about the date of introduction
for the "1994 Van," as I called it, since we know now it 
was introduced in 1992. Also, the four wheel drive and long
wheel base versions were offered in europe but not in the USA.]

A negative sort of person might even say the introduction of
the new Vanagon will be the final death for the loveable type
II, and all current type IIs will thereupon become
irreplacable.  (Think like this enough and you'll go crazy
like I did and empty countless cans of wax rust-proofing into
and under your car.)  The lineage might thereupon look like
this:

          pre- '67         cute; hints of the great 60s;
                           looks a little fragile

          post '67 bus     loveable and fun looking,
                           sort of like a puppy dog

          vanagon          neat, interesting looking, almost
                           like some kind of space-vehicle 
                           or military vehicle

          post '94         Ford Areostar look-a-like

[1994 Comment: Do you guys agree with my characterizations?]

SYNCRO SUSPENSION

A note is necessary before closing on the syncro suspension,
which would more properly be called defective than
inadequate.  The car wallowed so much when we first picked it
up I actually got carsick even while I was the driver!

There is no antisway bar made for the syncro, so I took it to
Bohemia, New York-based Dennis Haynes, who does excellent
work on VWs generally.  Dennis fabricated a special mounting
plate for the regular Vanagon sway bar, as he had done on his
own Syncro Camper, and the car felt 80% better.  The other
20% came from buying new light truck BF Goodrich All-Terrain
radial tires with stiffer sidewalls, size 27 x 8.50 14, as
Dennis had recomended.  The stiffer light truck sidewalls
provided an excellent anti-sway effect and we're now really
happy with the suspension.

We like the larger size of tire because of the heavy off-
roading use we put our camper to, but we do not recomend this
large size to other Vanagon owners unless they have a special
interest in gaining more ground clearance.  That's because
our accelertion times have dropped back to the level of the
'72 camper due to the effect the larger tires have on
gearing.  Also, if memory serves me correctly, you are
supposed to have 6" rims to mount this size tire.  The 5-1/2"
rims run by most Vanagons (except those with the 6" alloy
wheel package) is too narrow.

Derek Drew